Equalized Valuations for 2027-28 (with a focus on Newark)

This is just my annual post on changes in Equalized Valuation as a way of keeping track of changes in NJ's economy and population and predicting Equalization Aid for 2027-28.

First, NJ's total EV grew from $1,924,127,408,159 to $2,251,056,561,982, +17%.  That is the largest percentage increase in NJ's Equalized Valuation I've seen and ought to be enough to LOWER NJ's Local Fair Share multipliers.  

Note, I don't have the total EV of Equalization Aid-eligible districts, which is technically what the LFS multipliers are based on.

Anyway, as usual,  Equalized Valuation is half of the calculation of Local Fair Share.

For 2026-27, the Local Fair Share formula is

(Equalized Valuation x 0.013677750 + Aggregate Income x 0.055930804)/2

The major difference between 2026-27's Local Fair Formula and previous years is that Aggregate Income and Equalized Valuation are now three-year averages, not single-year data.  That change was first implemented in 2025-26 by the DOE as a way to stabilize state aid for districts who would otherwise lose more state aid, although the downside of multiyear averaging is that it can slow down a district's gain in state aid due to tax base erosion. 

Because of the use of multiyear averaging, changes in state aid take longer to be metabolized into the Equalization Aid distribution. 

As for the analysis, let's start with NJ's traditional core cities, with the usual discussion of Jersey City and Newark.

The biggest gain, as usual, was Jersey City, which gained $14 billion, after gaining $9.2 billion the year before. Jersey City's EV is now 5.1% of NJ's total, a record.  That $14 billion gain be more than enough to cement its loss of Equalization Aid, although the 3% state aid loss floor will limit Jersey City's loss to $3.8 million, since their 2026-27 state aid was $125 million.

Something of a surprise for 2026 is the gigantic growth of Newark's Equalized Valuation, from $26,683,740,214 to $35,567,389,992.

Although that $9 billion increase will be averaged in with the previous two years, it will still translate into a fairly large loss of Equalization Aid.  At the 2026-27 LFS formula, a $9 billion gain in Equalized Valuation translates to a $62 million loss of Equalization Aid.

Losing state aid, or even flat-funding, for Newark, would be a huge change for Newark since they've gotten such large increases in the recent past.

Given that Newark will have, at best, flat-funding in K-12 formula aid, it's time for the Newark administration and BOE to prepare Newarkers to pay a substantially higher tax levy.

And here are five year gains for counties.  

Note on Cape May: Cape May, if it were a single, consolidated district, would be richer in LFS per student than even Millburn and Princeton.

As of 2026-27 it has only two districts who are still eligible for Equalization Aid, Woodbine and Middle Township.

Woodbine is nowhere near being ineligible for Equalization Aid, but it's plausible that Middle Township's LFS may exceed its Adequacy Budget in the next couple years, since it had a LFS of $45.3 million versus an Adequacy Budget of $51.7 million in 2026-27.

Woodbine's growth in EV from FY2026 to FY2027 was $4.6 billion to $5 billion.  That $400 million growth should translate to $2.7 million in LFS.  If there is a similar growth in Aggregate Income and the LFS multipliers, that might mean that Middle Township becomes ineligible for Equalization Aid and Cape May's only Equalization Aid-eligible district is Woodbine.

State Aid Stability and the Local Fair Share Multipliers

{nothing I say represents anyone else.}

 In the last few years there's been a push from many NJ education watchers to add various provisions to SFRA to stabilize state aid for districts.  

For instance, the NJ Fair Funding Collective calls for multiyear averaging of Equalized Valuation and Aggregate Income

Additionally, current LFS calculations rely on single-year assessments of property values and income, leading to unpredictable and often drastic shifts in state aid. This is particularly dangerous for small municipalities, where dramatic swings in LFS can create budget crises. When LFS increases, districts often lack clarity on how to collect funds effectively, especially since income taxes cannot be leveraged in the same manner as property taxes. Exploring mechanisms to better collect based on actual resident incomes – while maintaining fairness – is essential for ensuring that districts can meet their obligations without placing undue strain on local communities. Moving to a five-year rolling average would smooth out many of these fluctuations, giving districts greater budget stability.

Tony Trongone, the executive director of the Great Schools of NJ organization, emphasizes the need for stability too:

The Department of Education’s 2026 school funding report makes clear that stability is the top priority for districts statewide. Schools are facing unpredictable aid changes driven by property value fluctuations, rising special education and transportation costs, escalating health insurance expenses and local tax-levy limits. Amid Sherrill’s first budget, uncertainty remains high for districts trying to plan responsibly.

State aid stability is a two-edged sword.  It's, of course, good in that it prevents larger cuts to a district's state aid, but, it simultaneously reduces state aid increases for underaided districts and allows state aid deficits to grow once again.  Hence, the 3% aid-loss floors of 2025-26 and 2026-27 necessitated the 6% aid gain ceilings.  Hence, underaiding is back.

In any case, Phil Muphy, Mikie Sherrill, and the NJ legislature have agreed that state aid stability is a priority in FY206 and FY2027 state aid.  In both those fiscal years, NJ used three-year averages of Equalized Valuation and Aggregate Income to calculate Local Fair Share.  

The point of this blogpost will be to demonstrate that there is an underappreciated cause of state aid volatility in the Local Fair Share multipliers themselves, where even a 1% difference can cost a district millions of dollars in Equalization Aid.  

Because for most Equalization Aid-eligible districts, the Equalized Valuation and Aggregate Income are massively larger than the school budget, a small change in the LFS multipliers can have a big effect on state aid.

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In 2026-27 there are 278 districts who are eligible for Equalization Aid, not counting vo-techs.  These districts range from Trenton, which gets $24,355 per student ($429 million), to Green Township that gets only $18 per student ($10,074).

The size of a an Equalization Aid gain or loss depends on what the ratio is of a district's Equalized Valuation & Aggregate Income relative to its Adequacy Budget.  This ratio ranges from Stafford Township, whose Equalized Valuation is 87x its Adequacy Budget, to Bridgeton, whose Equalized Valuation is only 5.6x its Adequacy Budget.

It is the middle-class districts for whom the Equalized Valuation and Aggregate Income are the largest relative to their Adequacy Budgets for whom a trivial change in the LFS multipliers can have a large effect.

2026-27's Local Fair Share formula is

(Equalized Valuation x 0.013677750 + Aggregate Income x 0.055930804)/2

which basically says that Local Fair Share is 0.684% of Equalized Valuation plus 2.797% of Aggregate Income.

Normally you wouldn't think that tweaking 0.684% to 0.7% nor increasing 2.797% to 2.8% would produce any noticeable change, but they do produce big changes for dozens of districts, and the LFS multipliers change by much larger amounts than 1% anyway.

	Equalized Valuation Multiplier	Aggregate Income Multiplier	Difference from Prior Year for Eq Valuation Multiplier	Difference from Prior Year for Agg Income Multiplier
2026-27	0.01367775	0.055930804	-8.5%	-6.7%
2025-26	0.014949314	0.059963161	17.6%	18.5%
2024-25	0.012707978	0.050601493	-0.8%	-0.9%
2023-24	0.012805233	0.051068829	-2.2%	12.0%
2022-23	0.01308941	0.045610629

And even if the change in the LFS multiplier were only 1% when Equalized Valuation and Aggregate Income are billion-dollar amounts, it does matter for the remaining middle-class districts who still get Equalization Aid!

If the 2026-27 LFS multipliers were increased by only 1% each, Local Fair Shares increase by 1% (obviously), but that 1% increase multiplied by Equalized Valuations and Aggregate Incomes that are much larger than district budgets produces large cuts to Equalization Aid.

These are the changes to Equalization Aid for NJ's 30 largest Equalization Aid-eligible districts under hypothetical 1% increases.

District	Local Fair Share at Actual 2026-27 Multipliers	Equalization Aid Eligibility at Actual LFS Multipliers	Equalized Valuation at 3-year avg	Aggregate Income at 3-year avg	LFS if EV Multipliers are Only 1% Higher	New Equalization Aid under 1% Increase in LFS Multipliers	Difference in Total Dollars	Difference Per Student	Difference as a Percentage of Adequacy Budget
NEWARK	$318,308,133	$1,261,166,058	$26,935,233,071	$4,795,262,409	$321,491,214	$1,257,982,977	-$3,183,081	-$57	0.20%
PATERSON	$164,561,098	$597,443,741	$13,197,347,985	$2,657,071,956	$166,206,710	$595,798,129	-$1,645,612	-$58	0.22%
ELIZABETH	$179,833,440	$519,388,450	$15,211,435,245	$2,710,647,103	$181,631,775	$517,590,115	-$1,798,335	-$72	0.26%
TRENTON	$60,054,551	$429,187,528	$3,748,854,797	$1,230,685,031	$60,655,096	$428,586,983	-$600,545	-$34	0.12%
EDISON	$306,251,087	$40,936,832	$22,183,784,071	$5,526,076,851	$309,313,598	$37,874,321	-$3,062,511	-$187	0.88%
CAMDEN	$41,978,777	$360,894,615	$2,624,235,995	$859,345,950	$42,398,565	$360,474,827	-$419,788	-$28	0.10%
WOODBRIDGE	$226,782,246	$104,475,375	$16,671,450,597	$4,032,421,165	$229,050,068	$102,207,553	-$2,267,822	-$161	0.68%
HAMILTON TWP	$190,618,618	$120,803,590	$13,325,550,359	$3,557,497,403	$192,524,804	$118,897,404	-$1,906,186	-$148	0.61%
PLAINFIELD	$65,706,427	$260,790,155	$4,443,441,299	$1,262,927,925	$66,363,491	$260,133,091	-$657,064	-$56	0.20%
PASSAIC	$79,596,856	$247,508,072	$5,893,942,012	$1,404,911,795	$80,392,824	$246,712,104	-$795,968	-$70	0.24%
CLIFTON	$198,058,969	$87,259,357	$15,234,170,497	$3,356,804,282	$200,039,559	$85,278,767	-$1,980,590	-$179	0.69%
UNION CITY	$84,008,007	$222,272,365	$6,459,731,788	$1,424,285,246	$84,848,088	$221,432,284	-$840,081	-$78	0.27%
CHERRY HILL	$210,963,288	$4,683,615	$13,459,268,496	$4,252,291,217	$213,072,921	$2,573,982	-$2,109,633	-$200	0.98%
BAYONNE	$133,604,281	$121,014,017	$10,711,595,027	$2,157,988,710	$134,940,324	$119,677,974	-$1,336,043	-$134	0.52%
EAST ORANGE	$76,435,684	$170,688,722	$5,407,927,461	$1,410,726,855	$77,200,040	$169,924,366	-$764,356	-$77	0.31%
PERTH AMBOY	$64,542,860	$202,127,453	$4,963,147,894	$1,094,227,513	$65,188,289	$201,482,024	-$645,429	-$66	0.24%
VINELAND	$89,735,467	$141,940,480	$5,851,598,736	$1,777,807,975	$90,632,822	$141,043,125	-$897,355	-$96	0.39%
IRVINGTON	$60,549,766	$185,369,530	$4,277,337,576	$1,119,153,915	$61,155,264	$184,764,032	-$605,498	-$66	0.25%
EAST BRUNSWICK	$154,997,777	$24,152,727	$10,248,419,061	$3,036,256,000	$156,547,754	$22,602,750	-$1,549,977	-$184	0.87%
NEW BRUNSWICK	$55,234,212	$188,115,160	$4,700,375,369	$825,624,904	$55,786,554	$187,562,818	-$552,342	-$67	0.23%
OLD BRIDGE	$168,266,737	$8,364,335	$12,077,393,227	$3,063,462,281	$169,949,404	$6,681,668	-$1,682,667	-$207	0.95%
UNION TWP	$141,689,493	$35,493,136	$10,708,759,861	$2,447,796,867	$143,106,388	$34,076,241	-$1,416,895	-$193	0.80%
EGG HARBOR TWP	$89,060,428	$72,524,301	$6,250,958,140	$1,656,007,193	$89,951,032	$71,633,697	-$890,604	-$128	0.55%
WASHINGTON TWP (Glou)	$112,130,926	$30,103,160	$7,199,616,526	$2,248,980,694	$113,252,236	$28,981,850	-$1,121,310	-$162	0.79%
PISCATAWAY	$146,404,571	$9,606,484	$12,062,904,039	$2,285,247,952	$147,868,616	$8,142,439	-$1,464,045	-$215	0.94%
HILLSBOROUGH	$147,768,378	$164,879	$9,484,222,268	$2,964,626,326	$149,246,061	-$1,312,804	-$1,477,683	-$217	1.00%
WEST NEW YORK	$73,598,814	$120,868,529	$4,563,597,900	$1,515,763,574	$74,334,801	$120,132,542	-$735,987	-$108	0.38%
WEST ORANGE	$142,445,258	$19,532,356	$8,696,953,637	$2,966,804,438	$143,869,710	$18,107,904	-$1,424,452	-$214	0.88%
LENAPE REGIONAL	$134,946,522	$5,337,708	$8,577,117,044	$2,727,966,913	$136,295,988	$3,988,242	-$1,349,466	-$211	0.96%
GLOUCESTER TWP	$79,114,463	$61,643,415	$5,057,847,018	$1,592,127,258	$79,905,607	$60,852,271	-$791,144	-$124	0.56%
NORTH BERGEN	$119,248,285	$53,520,675	$10,610,506,824	$1,669,361,120	$120,440,768	$52,328,192	-$1,192,483	-$189	0.69%

As you can see, for the more middle-class districts who still get Equalization Aid, the amount of money they can lose with even a trivial change to the LFS multipliers is substantial.  If a district spends $100,000 per FTE, you can see that some districts are losing many teachers.

These are the  Equalization Aid-eligible districts who will lose the most in dollars-per-student.

District	Local Fair Share at Actual 2026-27 Multipliers	Equalization Aid Eligibility at Actual LFS Multipliers	Equalized Valuation at 3-year avg	Aggregate Income at 3-year avg	LFS if EV Multipliers are Only 1% Higher	New Equalization Aid under 1% Increase in LFS Multipliers	Difference in Total Dollars	Difference Per Student	Difference as a Percentage of Adequacy Budget
NEPTUNE TWP	$77,119,347	$2,146,889	$6,707,499,653	$1,117,366,207	$77,890,540	$1,375,696	-$771,193	-$255	0.97%
RED BANK BORO	$27,387,045	$2,317,983	$2,196,020,215	$442,287,102	$27,660,915	$2,044,113	-$273,870	-$246	0.92%
CLIFFSIDE PARK	$59,895,386	$9,345,482	$4,489,273,916	$1,043,925,743	$60,494,340	$8,746,528	-$598,954	-$235	0.87%
HIGHLAND PARK	$34,791,290	$3,242,798	$2,083,080,061	$734,670,845	$35,139,203	$2,894,885	-$347,913	-$225	0.91%
RIDGEFIELD BORO	$30,141,005	$1,803,666	$2,694,855,951	$418,775,401	$30,442,415	$1,502,256	-$301,410	-$225	0.94%
DELANCO	$9,647,014	$704,311	$680,436,053	$178,563,403	$9,743,485	$607,840	-$96,471	-$222	0.93%
LYNDHURST	$58,365,711	$2,346,553	$4,928,138,614	$881,903,536	$58,949,368	$1,762,896	-$583,657	-$221	0.96%
MORRIS HILLS REG.	$56,684,555	$5,814,209	$3,999,624,961	$1,048,853,856	$57,251,400	$5,247,364	-$566,845	-$217	0.91%
PISCATAWAY	$146,404,571	$9,606,484	$12,062,904,039	$2,285,247,952	$147,868,616	$8,142,439	-$1,464,045	-$215	0.94%
WOODLAND PARK	$24,055,374	$1,296,748	$1,834,382,688	$411,589,284	$24,295,927	$1,056,195	-$240,553	-$214	0.95%
WEST ORANGE	$142,445,258	$19,532,356	$8,696,953,637	$2,966,804,438	$143,869,710	$18,107,904	-$1,424,452	-$214	0.88%
LENAPE REGIONAL	$134,946,522	$5,337,708	$8,577,117,044	$2,727,966,913	$136,295,988	$3,988,242	-$1,349,466	-$211	0.96%
BUTLER BORO	$20,314,022	$1,943,225	$1,417,396,600	$379,777,265	$20,517,162	$1,740,085	-$203,140	-$211	0.91%
WALLKILL VALLEY REG.	$12,184,411	$1,260,734	$897,657,485	$216,175,839	$12,306,256	$1,138,889	-$121,845	-$211	0.91%
LONG BRANCH CITY	$94,503,548	$25,231,193	$9,449,754,035	$1,068,386,604	$95,448,583	$24,286,158	-$945,035	-$211	0.79%
BASS RIVER TWP	$1,716,440	$173,651	$119,817,051	$32,076,260	$1,733,604	$156,487	-$17,164	-$209	0.91%
OLD BRIDGE	$168,266,737	$8,364,335	$12,077,393,227	$3,063,462,281	$169,949,404	$6,681,668	-$1,682,667	-$207	0.95%
HAZLET TWP	$52,321,293	$1,573,672	$3,898,173,320	$917,640,057	$52,844,506	$1,050,459	-$523,213	-$206	0.97%
KENILWORTH	$28,095,070	$1,802,715	$2,571,929,205	$375,677,345	$28,376,021	$1,521,764	-$280,951	-$206	0.94%
MATAWAN-ABERDEEN REG.	$72,384,400	$7,100,461	$5,041,622,880	$1,355,438,102	$73,108,244	$6,376,617	-$723,844	-$206	0.91%
MAYWOOD BORO	$27,395,261	$1,615,792	$2,089,460,166	$468,639,939	$27,669,214	$1,341,839	-$273,953	-$206	0.94%
ASBURY PARK	$35,925,775	$12,560,101	$3,134,570,254	$518,098,781	$36,285,033	$12,200,843	-$359,258	-$205	0.74%
ELSINBORO TWP	$2,230,541	$176,779	$140,857,738	$45,314,308	$2,252,847	$154,473	-$22,306	-$205	0.93%
PINELANDS REG.	$29,679,739	$7,282,549	$2,510,448,553	$447,377,607	$29,976,536	$6,985,752	-$296,797	-$204	0.80%
LEONIA BORO	$28,811,742	$930,091	$2,070,009,299	$524,047,794	$29,099,859	$641,974	-$288,117	-$203	0.97%
KEYPORT BORO	$15,038,918	$3,469,526	$1,166,721,637	$252,449,610	$15,189,307	$3,319,137	-$150,389	-$202	0.81%
HIGH POINT REG.	$14,452,991	$1,719,499	$1,049,854,131	$260,077,450	$14,597,522	$1,574,968	-$144,531	-$202	0.89%
WOODLAND TWP	$1,689,854	$222,297	$138,684,172	$26,511,672	$1,706,752	$205,399	-$16,898	-$201	0.88%
OCEAN GATE BORO	$2,533,646	$504,518	$256,245,681	$27,935,016	$2,558,983	$479,181	-$25,337	-$201	0.83%
MIDDLE TWP	$45,298,373	$6,438,615	$4,270,065,218	$575,565,860	$45,751,357	$5,985,631	-$452,984	-$201	0.88%
HIGH BRIDGE BORO	$5,708,914	$654,783	$343,890,298	$120,044,449	$5,766,003	$597,694	-$57,089	-$201	0.90%
FARMINGDALE BORO	$2,894,046	$59,678	$200,797,180	$54,382,177	$2,922,987	$30,737	-$28,941	-$201	0.98%
NUTLEY	$82,432,706	$6,310,399	$5,594,847,474	$1,579,460,312	$83,257,032	$5,486,073	-$824,326	-$201	0.93%
WEYMOUTH TWP	$3,976,364	$708,540	$262,225,350	$78,062,111	$4,016,128	$668,776	-$39,764	-$200	0.85%
CHERRY HILL	$210,963,288	$4,683,615	$13,459,268,496	$4,252,291,217	$213,072,921	$2,573,982	-$2,109,633	-$200	0.98%
LITTLE EGG HARBOR TWP	$25,380,689	$5,149,340	$2,180,557,741	$374,324,198	$25,634,495	$4,895,534	-$253,806	-$199	0.83%
BERGENFIELD BORO	$68,718,109	$12,083,782	$4,574,838,707	$1,338,488,158	$69,405,291	$11,396,600	-$687,182	-$198	0.85%
BOONTON TOWN	$22,688,325	$4,323,930	$1,633,805,790	$411,756,311	$22,915,208	$4,097,047	-$226,883	-$197	0.84%
ALLOWAY TWP	$6,582,293	$171,311	$409,174,031	$135,310,166	$6,648,116	$105,488	-$65,823	-$197	0.97%
STILLWATER TWP	$5,438,036	$200,472	$394,727,238	$97,926,226	$5,492,417	$146,091	-$54,381	-$196	0.96%
LUMBERTON	$21,054,578	$2,901,517	$1,335,978,390	$426,169,071	$21,265,124	$2,690,971	-$210,546	-$196	0.88%

Five districts, Stafford Twp, Wanaque Boro, Green Twp, Holland Twp, and Port Republic City would become ineligible for Equalization Aid if the multipliers increased by only 1%.

Of course, by the same token, a 1% decrease in the LFS multipliers implies a large increase in Equalization Aid, which is the "good kind" of instability, but the mathematical point holds: minuscule increases to percentages multiplied by huge monetary amounts produce large changes in state aid.  

Remember, the 1% hypothetical increase sketched out above would be very small.  A 5% increase in the LFS multipliers, which is more than plausible, could be really devastating.

Because Local Fair Shares will increase if Adequacy Budgets are increased through the statewide formula for Local Fair Share

Statewide Adequacy Budget - Statewide Available Equalization Aid = Statewide Local Fair Share

We should be cautious about raising Adequacy Budgets more than the state will be able to keep up with.

Is there a solution to this kind of state aid instability?  No, there isn't, other than the already-implemented 3% aid loss floor or a re-creation of Hold Harmless Aid.   Even if my preference for Local Fair Share to be based solely on Equalized Valuation were to be enacted, there would still be year-to-year fluctuations, depending on the state's fiscal health and whatever amount the governor wants to put into K-12 formula aid.