New Jersey's public schools have projected an enrollment loss of 26,114 for 2021-22, comparing the pre-Covid enrollment estimate made in February 2020 to the post-Covid enrollment estimate made in February 2021.
I take that number as a guess about an unknowable future quantity, but it is based on current year (2020-21) enrollment, so it does reflect a reality of thousands of students switching to homeschooling and private schools.
It is also the largest enrollment loss we've seen in a generation. Although NJ's enrollment peaked in 2005-06, K-12 enrollment had been stable in the last few years.
If you would like to see where your district stands in enrollment change, I've put the data online here.
Question: Will My District Lose State Aid?
Answer: If your district is underaided your district will still gain state aid.
Three quarters of NJ districts anticipate enrollment loss. So if your district is underaided, its share of the state's total deficit (on which new state aid is based) likely has not changed as much as its enrollment has.