Friday, March 17, 2017

Ocean City Represents Jersey Shore Aid Hoarding

Ocean City, Cape May:
Huge Tax Base + Substantial
State Aid
= Life is Good
Across New Jersey, hundreds of districts are struggling with budget cuts they never would have imagined having to make only a few years ago, but unable to prevent those cuts due to tapped out taxpayers.

From the largest districts, like Newark, which faces a $30 million deficit and Paterson, which faces a $20 million deficit, to medium-sized districts like Egg Harbor Township, which faces a $6.6 million deficit and the loss of other 40 staff members, to small Chesterfield, which faces a $500,000 deficit on a Total Operating Budget that is only $9.6 million.

Yet, there are some notable exceptions to this rule of sacrifice and austerity and this blog post is about one of those exceptions, Ocean City.

Like the rest of the state, Ocean City isn't getting any aid increase, but it only needs to increase taxes by 0.1%, or $5 per household, to avoid any cuts at all.  Whereas New Jersey's average school equalized tax rate is 1.3, Ocean City's is only .215.

The lack of a real tax increase isn't because of any kind of managerial genius by Ocean City's business office, it's because Ocean City was able to save over $2 million from the previous year and Ocean City's tax base is absolutely enormous relative to its (falling) student population.  A .1% tax increase for Ocean City brings in $1.2 million. 

Ocean City's example of budgetary abundance amidst an "ocean" of deprivation isn't alone.  There are many other districts at the Jersey Shore like it.  Avalon, Stone Harbor, Cape May Point, Allenhurt, Sea Isle City, Longport, Long Beach Island, Beach Haven, Seaside Park, Spring Lake, Lavallette, Bay Head, Sea Girt, Cape May City, Deal, Margate, Interlaken, and North Wildwood all possess over $60,000 in Local Fair Share per student.

Although a great deal of attention is (rightfully and necessarily) focused on Jersey City, Hoboken, and Asbury Park as aid hoarders, Jersey Shore districts ought to get some scrutiny too.

Like Hoboken, these Jersey Shore districts tend to have poorer students, but their enrollments are so small and their tax bases so gigantic, that these districts have no need for any state aid whatsoever, let alone their Adjustment Aid.

Ocean City's Equalized Valuation per student actually exceeds Hoboken's and dwarfs that of any affluent suburb, such as Millburn.

For 2016-17, Ocean City's Equalized Valuation was $11.6 billion, the sixth highest in New Jersey, but it only had 1,447 students.  Hoboken, by contrast "only" had $13.3 billion in Equalized Valuation for 2,600 students.  Ocean City's school tax rate is thus only 0.2, meaning the average homeowner with a $500,000 property only pays $1,000 in school taxes.   Yet that minute, 0.215 tax rate produces over $15,000 per student in local taxes.

Despite that enormous tax base, Ocean City receives $3,787,076 in state aid, or $2,617 per student.

With that large local tax contribution plus state aid, Ocean City's student spending is $17,869 per pupil, although unlike an Abbott its students are not particularly poor (they are 19% FRL-eligible, 2% ELL).

The example of Ocean City also underscores how misleading the Education Law Center's 2015 policy brief on Adjustment Aid was, "The Facts On Hold Harmless Aid."

That report took the (out-of-date) DFGs and used "low-DFG = low-wealth,"middle-DFG = middle-wealth" when the DFG classifications are socioeconomic, not tax base.

According to Danielle Farrie of the Education Law Center, a district like Ocean City would be "middle wealth," since its in DFG DE but, as you can see, calling Ocean City "middle wealth" is totally irrelevant when it comes to state aid.  Ocean City has very few students relative to its tax base and even if they were all in poverty, there is no justification for $3,787,076 in state aid while New Jersey is in fiscal crisis and so many hundreds of districts are budgetarily desperate and/or overtaxed.
Sen. Jeff Van Drew
(Democrat, Dist. 1):
Are other places in NJ
in budget crisis?
What a pity.  

What's more, Ocean City's DFG DE classification makes no sense based on its current student demographics.  As mentioned above, Ocean City is only 19% FRL eligible and 2% ESL.

So Ocean City represents the problems of Adjustment Aid, but also the problems of SFRA, since a district like Ocean City has no need for any state aid and the state is bankrupt.

Ocean City and the rest of Cape May's aid hoarding is also a political problem for reform, since Ocean City's State Senator, Jeff Van Drew, is anti-reform and was one of six Senators to vote against Steve Sweeney's state aid reform proposal, saying, “I believe there is a huge potential in the direction that the new commission would go not to hold them harmless anymore. It would be a very significant blow."

Based on Van Drew's opposition, it's likely Cape May's Assemblymembers are anti-reform too.

Ocean City also represents the wrongness of the Education Law Center's defense of Adjustment Aid.

Adjustment Aid rarely goes to genuinely needy districts.  It is privilege, not equity.

Update: Hoboken's budget picture is also excellent.







Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Estimating Local Fair Share for 2017-18


Update: Local Fair Share, Capped Aid, and Uncapped Aid are now available

The following is moot.



After the Department of Education came out with 2017-18 state aid proposals I made an OPRA request of the Department of Education for 2017-18 Uncapped Aid and Local Fair Share.

I wanted Uncapped Aid so I could see what the total deficit is for the underaided districts, see what districts are the most underaided, see the total surplus for the overaided districts, and see what districts are the most overaided.

I wanted Local Fair Share so I could see whose taxes are the heaviest, whose taxes are the lightest, and what the median district in New Jersey pays.

I did not request Adequacy Budgets because spending relative to Adequacy is also determined by local tax effort and a focus on whose spending is above and below Adequacy can distract from state aid fairness.  Also, Adequacy Budgets are embedded into the calculation of Uncapped Aid anyway.

To my disappointment, the Department of Education said it did not calculate Local Fair Share and Uncapped Aid for 2017-18.  They did not give a reason, but my conjecture is that it was Christie who made the final decision not to bother with even the hypothetical operation of SFRA.

Nevertheless, the Department of Education did send me the components of Local Fair Share, which are Equalized Valuation (from the previous fiscal year, so 2016) and Aggregate Income (from three  years previous, so 2014).

The formula for Local Fair Share changes year to year, but by plugging in Equalized Valuation and Aggregate Income figures into the 2016-17 formula, I can ESTIMATE 2017-18 Local Fair Share and compare district tax bases.

This is the (first) formula for Local Fair Share used in 2016-17:

(Equalized Valuation x 0.013156218 + Aggregate Income x 0.046185507)/2

To see more about changes in Equalized Valuation between FY2016 and FY2017, please see this post of mine.

As usual, I've put the data online here.  2016-17 data, to which I make comparisons, is available here.

Yet again, these amounts are ESTIMATES - especially the year to year comparisons - since I have no idea what the multipliers should be in the 2017-18.



On the other hand, the relational comparisons between different towns should be very solid, since I am applying the same multipliers to every district for 2017-18.  If these calculations show that Hoboken's Local Fair Share is New Jersey's third highest at $195 million, I'd be surprised if the DOE's calculations give any different ranking, even if the exact Local Fair Share turns out to be something other than $195 million.

Hopefully the legislature will pressure Department of Education to simply run the formula so that the public may have a more informed conversation about state aid.

Anyway here goes:

  • Jersey City's Local Fair Share would increase by another $20 million to $353 million.  This is powered by a $4 billion increase in the Equalized Valuation  (to $25.7 bil) and a $502 million increase in the Aggregate Income (to $8 bil).

    Jersey City's Local Fair Share appears to be now 76% larger than the next largest district's, which is Edison at $200 million.  For 2016-17 Jersey City's Local Fair Share was "only" 60% larger than Edison's.
  • Hoboken's gained $1.8 billion in Equalized Valuation and $357 million in Aggregate Income.  Whatever the exact  Local Fair Share formula ends up being, Hoboken's Local Fair Share would likely be around  $195 million and be the third largest in New Jersey, after Jersey City and slightly behind Edison.  This year Hoboken's Local Fair Share surpasses Toms River's.

    Hoboken's 2016-17 tax levy was only $42 million, so for 2017-18 Hoboken's taxes will be barely a fifth of Local Fair Share

    For the last year pro-reformers in the legislature have pushed to eliminate Adjustment Aid, but there are certain low-student population districts such as Hoboken, some wealthy enclaves like Alpine and Harding, and many Jersey Shore resort towns who have no need for any state aid whatsoever.  
  • There is also increases in other Hudson County towns, powered by non-Hoboken/non-Jersey City Hudson County's $5 billion increase in Equalized Valuation.  West New York's would be $4 million larger, driven by 10% increases in Equalized Valuation and Aggregate Income.

    Union City, Bayonne, North Bergen, Harrison, Kearny, and others would have small increases (the small increases might be smoothed away if the DOE actually ran the formula)
  • Asbury Park's Local Fair Share would actually shrank (by a tiny amount). That's outrageous, since Asbury Park is undergoing a building boom. Asbury Park is just as much an example of the exploitation of the PILOT law as Jersey City is.  
  • Atlantic City's Local Fair Share fell by another $13 million, from $65 million to $52 million.  This is due to the loss of another $2 billion in Equalized Valuation and $8 million in Aggregate Income.

    Atlantic City's school tax levy for 2016-17 was $82 million, so Atlatic City's taxes may be 157% of Local Fair Share.

  • Manchester Regional's taxes are likely the state's highest again.  My estimate is that Manchester Regional's Local Fair Share is only $4.9 million, so the $10.9 million (which falls disproportionately on Prospect Park and Haledon due to Manchester Regional's unique tax-apportionment scheme) is absolutely brutal.
  •  
  • Newark's Local Fair Share may have grown slightly, by $6 million, from $161 million to $167 million. (Newark's actual tax levy is $123 million)
  • Paterson's Local Fair Share may have grown slightly too, by $3 million, from $85 million to $88 million (Paterson's actual tax levy is only $41.5 million)

Again, the above figures are only ESTIMATES, but I hope this post generates discussion, particularly regarding Hoboken and Jersey City's state aid and the acute tax crisis in Atlantic City.

Please ask your legislators to demand that the Department of Education do these calculations for real.

At the very least, we have to know  what the total deficit is for the underaided districts.  For 2016-17 it was $1.93 billion, which is far beyond any realistic tax increase.  This deficit number is a critical point in the argument for why redistribution is necessary.

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See Also:

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Why Jersey City's Lawsuit Against Redistribution is a Good Sign

Mayor Steve Fulop and the Jersey City City Council have announced that Jersey City is going to hire
Up Until Now, Fulop has relied on Vincent Prieto
to block state aid redistribution.
a law firm to fight off any attempt to redistribute Jersey City's $420 million in state aid.

Before I get into why this is a good sign, let's have some backstory about Steve Fulop and state aid.

After state aid redistribution became a possibility in early 2016, Steve Fulop refused to discuss the subject in a serious way.




Fulop showed his immaturity in a series of petty attacks on Jack Ciattarelli, where when Ciattarelli said that Jersey City's economic growth indicated that its state aid needed to be redistributed, Fulop returned fire by bragging about Jersey City's economic growth.

“It’s easy for local policy makers to achieve tax reductions when the state subsidizes their services,” said the Assemblyman. “The fact is, fiscally speaking, we’re experiencing a very painful squeeze or crowding out effect with our state budget. Overly generous property tax abatements are one of the reasons why. These abatement are not only an exploitation of our state school funding formula, they are an injustice to property owners in places like Jersey City. In trying to solve the state’s problems, we need policy makers at all levels of government to take these issues seriously. In that respect, the statement issued by the Fulop camp is an embarrassment and a disservice – a disservice to the taxpayers of this state who fund Fulop’s school system.”

To which Fulop responded in a way that proved Ciattarelli's point:

“Jersey City had a tax reduction last year and just today we will adopt a budget without a tax increase. Jersey City has led the state in job creation just as we had a credit upgrade last year.

After that, Fulop switched tacks to refusing to say anything in public about state aid, but using his control over Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto to block reform.

His comments at this point were few and far between. By September 2016, according to Jersey Journal reporter Terrence McDonald, "Mayor Steve Fulop has declined several times to comment on Christie's and Sweeney's plans" other than to say it was a " long road" to reform becoming a reality and then another ignorant statement on how SFRA works "Urban education is very complex. I don't think in certain areas parents and cities have the same means to pay as in some of the suburban areas."

Which of course is an untruth regarding Jersey City. For 2016-17 Jersey City's school tax rate was 0.47, less than half of New Jersey's 1.3 average, so certainly Jersey City can pay more than that.

Over the next few months Fulop was again silent, but he used his clout with Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto to block state aid reform.  (even though Prieto actually represents several of New Jersey's most underaided districts)

Yet by February 2017 state aid reform had enough momentum that Fulop decided he had to say something and what he said was bullshit, claiming state aid redistribution was “clearly an attack on poorer, primarily African American, Latino and minority districts.” Fulop also gave a two-faced argument where he claimed that only Jersey City's waterfront is doing well (even though Jersey City is a single-entity from the point of view of taxation), even though Fulop constantly claims to Jersey City audiences that the whole city is thriving.

Anyway, after Steve Sweeney tore apart Fulop's arguments and Fulop's distortions were exposed again Fulop decided that what Jersey City needed to do was hire a law firm for $75,000 to fight off the redistribution of Adjustment Aid.

As Fulop spokesperson Jennifer Morrill said: "Our plan is to continue to fight for Jersey City students and residents every step of the way."

Or in other words, "if it's good for Jersey City, then screw everyone else."

Public Opposition is a Good Sign!

While many people are angry about Jersey City's litigation and blatant indifference to the fate of the rest of New Jersey, I think the litigation itself is a good sign.

Fulop never took state aid reform seriously prior to this winter.  Presumably he knew Prieto would block it.

But now that Fulop is actually speaking out against redistribution and wasting $75,000 of Jersey City's money on a law firm it means that Fulop has a fear of redistribution that he didn't have before.

We in the public have never been privy to what conversations Steve Fulop and Vincent Prieto have.  All we know is that Fulop is against state aid redistribution and he boasts "I have significant clout with the Speaker."

But if Fulop is now hiring a law firm, that means that either his control over Vincent Prieto is loosening or Prieto has told him that he isn't going to be able to block state aid redistribution much longer.

So while it's infuriating that Fulop and the City Council have this unbelievably self-interested mentality (they all purport to be progressives), the fact that they finally feel they have to fight for Adjustment Aid means that they finally take seriously the prospect of its elimination.

Jersey City City Council:
If It's Good for Jersey City,
Then Screw Everyone Else




Friday, March 3, 2017

New Jersey=Debtors' Prison: The 2017-18 Budget

Note, this post was accurate at the time it was written regarding flat-funding for K-12 operating aid.  In June 2017 Steve Sweeney pushed through a deal that did increase K-12 aid by $100 million, PreK by $25 million, and Extraordinary Aid by another $25 million.   See this update on disparities for a look after Sweeney's last-minute changes.

Everything in this post I say about categories of debt getting the lion's share of new money remains still accurate. 


The Garden State
For 2017-18 K-12 state operating aid for school districts is increasing by a measly $3,140,585, all of which is going for Interdistrict Choice and Host District Stabilization Aid for Newark.

Of New Jersey's 577 school districts, only 91 are receiving any aid increase at all.

Even New Jersey's most savagely underaided districts, like Manchester Regional, Freehold Boro, East Newark, Chesterfield are gaining nothing.  Bound Brook, who was the most underaided school district for 2016-17, is getting a $6,387 boost, which is for perhaps another Interdistrict Choice student.

Atlantic City, which had lost another $2 billion in Equalized Valuation, gained nothing other than $60,881 for Interdistrict Choice.  This is a contrast to last year, when Atlantic City gained $32 million last year for "Commercial Valuation Stabilization Aid."

Since state aid for 2016-17 was $8,031,337,333, the increase is an imperceptible 4 one-thousandths of a percent.  2016-17 was a bad year too, but at least in that year K-12 aid increased by $90 million.

Yet there is more to this story than just the headline aid increase of $3,140,585 and that untold story is large increases for New Jersey's debt.


  • TPAF funding is increasing by $411 million.  
  • Post-retirement medical funding for teachers is increasing by $69.9 million.
  • Debt Service on Christie Whitman's Pension Obligation Bonds is increasing by $15.4 million.
  • Debt service aid (which goes directly to districts) is increasing by $17.4 million.  

State Debt Servicing, which is for the bonds the Economic Development Authority floated for (mostly Abbott) construction is increasing by $20.5 million from $898.3 million to $918.8 million.

New Jersey's expenses for teachers Social Security is actually falling.  Perhaps this is due the 2016-17 budget cuts meaning that there are now fewer teachers?

Because TPAF and other education debt expenses increased so much, education spending (broadly defined as opex aid and other education-related expenses) is now 39% of the state budget versus only 31% of the budget in 2001. (FY2018 = $13.8 billion out of $35.5 billion)

Click to Enlarge.
Source, pg 41
http://www.nj.gov/treasury/omb/publications/18bib/BIB.pdf


And for comparison's sake, here is where the increase for 2016-17 went.  (the graph refers to "proposed increases," but these proposed increases actually were implemented.)

As you can see, it's the same story.






Thursday, March 2, 2017

Jersey City PILOTed Property is Worth $11.6 Billion

FYI, this article by Terrence McDonald of the Jersey Journal about Jersey City PILOTs is worth reading for several reasons, but I wanted to point out something from the conclusion of the article:

Last year Jersey City's PILOT program took in $127,800,476 from tax-abated properties. If all these properties were taxed conventionally, the total would be $211,967,791.
None of This Pays Any
School Taxes
(The relevance of this to state aid is that PILOTed property is "invisible" to the formula for Equalization Aid, thereby sustaining an artificially high state aid package for Jersey City.)

The State of New Jersey has no comprehensive database on how much property towns have in PILOT status, but the publication of  what Jersey City's PILOTed properties would pay if they were subject normal taxation allows one to calculate what the PILOTed properties are worth.

Jersey City's all-in tax rate is only 1.826%.

If Jersey City's PILOTed properties would pay $211,967,791 in taxes, that means that their full valuation is $11.6 BILLION.

$211,967,791 / .01826 = $11,608,312,760.10

This is up substantially from 2015, when Jersey City's PILOTed properties were only worth $8.6 billion.

$11.6 billion is a gigantic amount, it is equal to 45% of Jersey City's $25.7 billion in taxable property.

If Jersey City's PILOTed properties were an independent city, their Equalized Valuation would be the seventh largest in New Jersey.

Here are the top Equalized Valuations in New Jersey:

  1. Jersey City's (taxable) $25.7 billion
  2. Edison $15.8 billion
  3. Toms River $15.167 billion
  4. Hoboken $15.128 billion
  5. Newark $13.8 billion
  6. Ocean City $12 billion
  7. Jersey City's PILOTed $11.6 billion
  8. Middletown $10.6 billion
  9. Woodbridge $10.5 billion

At Jersey City's tiny 0.471% (Equalized) school tax rate, those PILOTed properties should be paying $54,675,153.10.

The $11.6 billion is also equal to 16% of Hudson County's $71 billion in Equalized Valuation.  At Hudson County's 0.458% tax rate, that means that that PILOTed property should be paying $53 million in county taxes.

Hence, the distortion of Hudson County's taxation cannot be ignored any more than the distortion of school taxes and school aid can be.

This means that taxpayers in Hudson County's several severely underaided school districts - like Bayonne, Guttenberg, East Newark, North Bergen, and Kearny - are victimized twice by Jersey City; first as state taxpayers who must subsidize Jersey City's schools, second as Hudson County taxpayers who must subsidize Jersey City's county services.

As Jersey City blogger CivicParent has documented, when Steve Fulop of Jersey City campaigned in 2013 for mayor, he attacked the incumbent (Jerramiah Healy) for granting PILOTs, saying PILOTs "robbed the schools."

If elected, Fulop swore he would share PILOT revenue with the Board of Education.

HOWEVER, after he won the election, Fulop immediately forgot that promise.

Although there has been an attempt to reduce downtown tax abatements - Fulop should get credit for not PILOTing the supertall skyscraper 99 Hudson Street - since Fulop became mayor Jersey City has given out 70 PILOT agreements, presumably worth billions.

Although the primary thrust of Steve Sweeney's state aid reform fight is to eliminate Adjustment Aid, Sweeney's effort to end the distortion of state aid that results from PILOTing cannot be ignored either.


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See Also