Saturday, October 23, 2021

2022 Equalized Valuations are Out


New Jersey's 2022-23 state aid numbers will not come out until the governor's FY2023 budget speech and state aid surpluses and deficits in 2022-23 will be strongly affected by the new Education Adequacy Report, but we can get a sneak peak at some changes in NJ State Aid by analyzing changes in Equalized Valuation.

Analyzing changes in Equalized Valuation also gives us a view into the state's ever swirling economic currents and what towns are thriving, holding their own, stagnating, and declining.  

Source for Data: NJ Table of Equalized Values.

-----


New Jersey's total Equalized Valuation increased from $1,353,490,784,661 to $1,430,600,617,782, a 5.7% increase.  5.7% is larger than most recent years, but it is not much larger than inflation, which was 5.4%.  (No, housing prices are NOT calculated as part of inflation.)

In contrast to previous years when Hudson County grew by more than 10% and had growth equal to 25% of the state's total, Hudson County was in last place for 2020-21.  In fact, South Jersey and the Jersey Shore led the state.


Ocean County had another good year at 9.3% growth (+$2.7 billion).  30% of that growth came from Lakewood, which grew from $12 billion to $12.8 billion.  (The Lakewood Public Schools continue to be ineligible for Equalization Aid, contrary to what some judges think.)


The trend could be a state manifestation of the nationwide boom in car-dependent places enabled by remote-working..




In NJ we hear constantly about an "urban renaissance," but NJ's big cities are wildly divergent in their
 economic fates and it's impossible to generalize about them.  Jersey City and Hoboken have boomed,  but the other cities have tended to lag state averages. Newark's renaissance is part reality, but also exaggeration.



Changes in Equalized Valuation also allow us to estimate changes to each district's Local Fair Share, although since Local Fair Share is based on Aggregate Income and depends on the statewide Adequacy Budget which will surely increase as a result of the Education Adequacy Report, I can only estimate what will happen.  

The 2021-22 Local Fair Share multipliers were:


Equalized Val.  x  0.013767998

District Income  x  0.051821204

Which is really 0.724% of Equalized Valuation plus 2.64% of Aggregate Income.

Hence, I get the following estimates for Local Fair Share changes for NJ's largest school districts.

FY2021 Equalized ValuationFY2022 Equalized ValuationGrowth or LossEstimate of LFS Change from 2021-22 LFS Real Estate Multiplier
NEWARK$14,982,559,801$14,465,468,748-$517,091,053-$3,559,654
JERSEY CITY$44,232,603,821$45,362,027,053$1,129,423,232$7,774,948
PATERSON$8,357,271,633$8,998,986,504$641,714,871$4,417,565
ELIZABETH$9,205,643,641$10,418,709,083$1,213,065,442$8,350,741
EDISON18,032,657,681$19,057,739,251$1,025,081,570$7,056,661
TRENTON$2,353,253,026$2,582,977,552$229,724,526$1,581,423
CAMDEN CITY$1,831,881,725$1,924,025,009$92,143,284$634,314
TOMS RIVER REGIONAL16,548,612,072$17,900,054,286$1,351,442,214$9,303,327
PASSAIC CITY4,112,963,610$4,293,101,153$180,137,543$1,240,067
WOODBRIDGE12,596,646,914$12,857,998,640$261,351,726$1,799,145
UNION CITY4,661,686,444$4,727,594,311$65,907,867$453,710
HAMILTON TWP9,262,658,564$9,530,775,475$268,116,911$1,845,717
CLIFTON CITY10,616,935,162$11,331,152,347$714,217,185$4,916,670
CHERRY HILL TWP9,092,288,643$9,553,839,001$461,550,358$3,177,312



Factoring in Jersey City's income growth and the increase in the LFS multipliers from the Education Adequacy Report, Jersey City's Local Fair Share will likely increase by a few tens of millions, but probably not enough to eliminate its Equalization Aid, which was $84 million in 2021-22.


(See Education Adequacy Report Drives Big Changes to State Aid)

----



Tuesday, April 27, 2021

New Jersey's Population Growth in the 2010s

 

One theme of this blog is that New Jersey is overtaxed and that having high taxes induces low economic growth, net outmigration, and  low population growth.

In making that argument, I used authoritative data from the US Census, such as State Population Totals and State to State Migration Flows.  For job growth, I used authoritative Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

My analysis is only as good as my data.  Unfortunately for my analysis of population growth, the Census data I relied badly underestimated New Jersey's population growth by 412,000 people (4.58%).  

Although estimates are just estimates and it's understood they aren't exact, the Census's mistake for NJ is its largest for any state.  Instead of an estimated population growth for the 2010s of +80,000, our actual population growth is +497,000.

Instead of having a population growth that was expected to be the ninth slowest in the US, our population growth was actually the 26th slowest, meaning 25th highest.  New Jersey's growth of 5.65% is thus at the median of states, and only somewhat below the national weighted average of 7.4%.

The error in the Census estimate for NJ is huge and is outside the margin of error for their reports.  For instance, for 2018-19 State to State migration, the Census estimated that 229,484 people moved out of NJ, with a MOE of +/- 11,928 and 149,260 moved in with a MOE of +/- 9,572. Immigration into NJ was 60,826 with a MOE of +/- 7,820.

Even if the move-out number was 11,928 too high, the move-in was 9,572 people too low, and the immigration was 7,820 too low, that's only 29,320 additional people in NJ, which doesn't equal the 40,000 annual "hidden population increase."



In the 2010s, instead of New Jersey's growth coming in at 16% of the national average (which would have been our worst ever), it was 77% of the national average, which is the best we've done since the heyday of suburbanization of the 1950s-1960s.

YearNJ PopulationNJ Growth Over Previous DecadeUS PopulationUS Growth Over the Previous DecadeNJ's Increase as a Percentage of US Increase
19504,835,329-151,325,798--
19606,066,78225.5%179,323,17518.5%138%
19707,168,16418.2%203,211,92613.3%136%
19807,364,8232.7%226,545,80511.5%24%
19907,730,1885.0%248,709,8739.8%51%
20008,414,3508.9%281,421,90613.2%67%
20108,791,8944.5%308,745,5389.7%46%
2019 (est.)8,882,1901.0%328,239,5236.3%16%
2020 (official)9,288,9945.7%331,449,2817.4%77%


Faced with the reality that NJ had solid population growth in the 2010s, I have to admit that perhaps my thesis that high taxes are strangling New Jersey is exaggerated.  More people are either unaffected by NJ's high taxes, tolerant of the high taxes, angry about taxes but stuck in New Jersey, or supportive of New Jersey's taxes than I thought.  

Population change is determined by three things

  • natural increase (ie, births minus deaths).
  • immigration.
  • domestic migration.


We know New Jersey's births slowed down. There were only 1,027,274 babies born in NJ 2010-2019, versus 1,143,427 in the 2000s.

We know NJ's deathcount also rose slightly, from 719,513 in the 2000s to 724,387 in the 2010s.

Thus, natural increase contributed 121,027 fewer people to NJ's population increase in the 2010s than 2000s.  

Thus, the cause of the Census's discrepancy must be a large underestimate of immigration and/or an overestimate or net domestic outmigration.  It's entirely possible that thousands more people are living "in the shadows" in NJ than anyone realized and the Census's estimates missed them.  It's also possible that the 2010 Census count for NJ was an undercount.

Although those of us who warn about the negative effects of high taxes on population growth must be humble now and rethink our positions, in terms of economic growth, the 2010s were still a bad decade for New Jersey, with our 2007-2018 income growth coming in at the country's eighth lowest.   


And job growth was the 16th lowest.




New Jersey's growth in the 2010s isn't exactly vindication of the progressive case either, since a conservative named Chris Christie was governor for eight years of that period and New Jersey's property taxes increased more slowly than in previous decades.  

If someone argues that New Jersey's average population growth validates a highly-progressive tax structure, the population growth of high-earners in New Jersey, based on verified IRS data, is still among the country's lowest.

New Jersey's growth is also highly uneven, although that is probably unavoidable. Here's our growth in Murphy's first two pre-Covid years.




Anyway, it is a time to rethink demographic, population, and fiscal conditions in New Jersey.  Are taxes are damaging as I thought?  No.  But is New Jersey still overtaxed and is our budget out-of-whack with neglect of non-PreK-12 items?  I think so.

UPDATE:

EJ McMahon presents some interesting ideas about the Census's underestimate of NJ's population:

Where are all those people?

So what accounts for New York’s estimate-census gulf? Demographic data grinders suggest at least three possible factors:
    • Since 2010, the Census Bureau has changed its annual estimation methodology in a way that resulted in a lower count of foreign immigrants, which have accounted for an especially large share of New York’s population growth over the past 40 years.
    • New York State and New York City officials provided the Census Bureau with a large number of addresses that were not in the Bureau’s master file.
    • The Census Bureau had an expanded outreach program for 2020, which for the first time included the option of filling out census forms online. The federal outreach effort was heavily promoted and augmented by immigration activist groups, subsidized by the state and city, in the New York metropolitan area.

These factors don’t explain the trends in all immigrant-intensive states, however. For example, the difference between Census estimates and the 2020 official Census in California, Florida and Texas were tiny at 0.2 percent, 0.4 percent and 0.6 percent respectively. New Jersey, on the other hand, had the largest percentage difference between its 2019 estimate and 2020 census count: 4.6 percent.


The WSJ also documents that Covid produced a huge movement into NJ from NY, although that would have mostly taken effect after the Census's snapshot day.

 

The exodus from New York City has been a boon for New Jersey. The state more than doubled its new households from migration in 2020 from the prior year. In 12 suburban New Jersey counties, net growth from relocating New York City residents rose to more than 35,000 households in 2020, up 76% from the prior year.



  


Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Anticipated NJ Enrollment Loss


New Jersey's public schools have projected an enrollment loss of 26,114 for 2021-22, comparing the pre-Covid enrollment estimate made in February 2020 to the post-Covid enrollment estimate made in February 2021.

I take that number as a guess about an unknowable future quantity, but it is based on current year (2020-21) enrollment, so it does reflect a reality of thousands of students switching to homeschooling and private schools.  

It is also the largest enrollment loss we've seen in a generation.  Although NJ's enrollment peaked in 2005-06, K-12 enrollment had been stable in the last few years.



If you would like to see where your district stands in enrollment change, I've put the data online here.

Question:  Will My District Lose State Aid?

Answer: If your district is underaided your district will still gain state aid.

Three quarters of NJ districts anticipate enrollment loss.  So if your district is underaided, its share of the state's total deficit (on which new state aid is based) likely has not changed as much as its enrollment has.

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Good and Bad in the Lakewood State Aid Case

One of the most significant state aid news events of the past month is the decision by an Administrative Law Judge, Susan M. Scarola, that the School Funding Reform Act is not necessarily unconstitutional for Lakewood, but that the Commissioner of Education could decide on a special budgetary remedy for Lakewood.


An administrative law judge has determined the public school district cannot fulfill its constitutional mandate to provide students a "thorough and efficient education," but stopped short of determining that the state funding formula is unconstitutional. 

In a non-binding decision Judge Susan Scarola recommended that the New Jersey Commissioner of Education conduct a needs assessment of the school district's ability to meet its obligations and make "appropriate recommendations to the district."
 
The decision scarcely binds the Acting Education Commissioner Dr. Angelica Allen-McMillan to do anything; the recommendation may be adopted, modified or rejected by Allen-McMillan. But the harsh assessment — that the school district cannot meet its constitutional mandate — puts fresh focus on the troubled school district and pressure on the state's top education official to intervene.

The situation in Lakewood is complex, and I agree and disagree with the ALJ's decision.  I agree with the ALJ that Lakewood has the capacity to increase its local taxes, but I disagree that SFRA might produce an adequate state aid amount for Lakewood even if Lakewood paid 100% of its Local Fair Share.  If you look at Lakewood's unique demographics, there is no possibility of that. (See "The Origins of Lakewood's Budget Disaster")

Background

The School Funding Reform Act bases Lakewood's Adequacy Budget, and hence its Equalization Aid, on the number of students who are enrolled in the public schools, which is 5,896 for 2020-21.

If you look at the number of Lakewood students who are Out Of District special ed placement compared to the Lakewood Public Schools, it is wildly disproportionate, but if you look at the number who are in Out Of District placement compared to the whole Lakewood population, it is merely average.  

Equalization Aid is meant to be a district's "all purpose state aid."  Equalization Aid, along with the local tax levy, that is is supposed to be used for everything from teacher salaries to basketballs to furnace repairs to reading coaches, to most relevant for Lakewood, Out of District tuition and private school transportation.

Year2011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-20162016-20172017-20182018-20192019-20202020-2021
OOD Tuition$18,089,987$19,587,230$20,979,587$18,325,244$17,972,788$24,777,814$27,648,082$30,052,929$31,865,269$33,922,516
Transportation Spending$14,978,022$15,978,039$22,989,657$25,449,467$28,093,613$31,780,583$31,963,75337,638,604 443,252,944 5$51,100,775

Transportation Aid covers about a third of (mandated) private school bussing, but the other two-thirds are meant to be paid for with the local tax levy and (if eligible) Equalization Aid.   Extraordinary Aid covers a fifth of Out Of District tuition, but the rest of the spending is supposed to come from the local tax levy and (if eligible) Equalization Aid.  




So Lakewood's Equalization Aid would be inadequate in any case, but Lakewood's sub-problem is that its Equalization Aid is $0.  (It is not clear that the ALJ realized this)


In a normal district, private school transportation is a tiny expense and Out of District tuition falls in a range where the local tax levy, Extraordinary Aid, and, if relevant, Equalization Aid cover it.  

But not Lakewood, because Lakewood's public school population is only a sixth of the total population.  Lakewood's 362 students in special ed private schools out of ~35,000 are at New Jersey's 1% average, but they are over 6% of the public school enrollment of 5,896.

I believe the logic of the Lakewood situation indicates that SFRA doesn't work for Lakewood, but something worrisome about the ALJ's decision is that it is unclear if she realized Lakewood was already ineligible for Equalization Aid.

Adequacy Budget (for Equalization Aid)Local Fair Share
Equalization Aid
2017-18$109,857,390$102,034,106$7,823,284
2018-19$123,904,450$111,534,172$12,370,278
2019-20$123,598,294$123,904,450$0
2020-21$121,724,164$134,643,568$0


For instance:

The challenge is that when taxes were raised, they covered public schools and State aid was increased. But now, in Lakewood Township, the number of public school students stays about the same, while the non-public school student population goes up about 10% per year. This affects the budget in transportation, because Lakewood has to pay the LSTA $1,000 per student per year, which actually comes to about $710 per student after State aid is factored in. Usually taxes and State aid are sufficient for most communities to cover this expense, but in Lakewood, even with categorical aid and equalization aid, it is not enough because the equalization aid and the categorical aid are frozen. It is not enough because increased taxes do not cover the costs.

She does quote a witness who predicted Lakewood's Equalization Aid would go to zero, without realizing it already had.

The largest calculation in State aid is equalization aid, which is based on property value and income. Lakewood’s equalization aid is disappearing because of its increase in property value, and Wyns predicts that it will soon be zero. This is a consequence of recent amendments to the SFRA: adjustment aid and equalization aid will be gone, and only categorical aid of special education and security aid will be left.

And

The district has a revenue problem. The State-aid funding formula works well for 99% of the state. It does not work for Lakewood because the district cannot contribute to its adequacy budget because wealth and ratables are taken into account when calculating aid. The district gets some equalization aid. Lakewood has a base of 36,000 students, where one-sixth of the students are in public school and five-sixths are not. 

Also, Lakewood never was listed as getting Adjustment Aid.  It is among the small number of districts who flipped from being underaided to overaided in 2018-19, but it never had a sustained stream of Adjustment Aid like most overaided districts did.  

The ALJ also conflates Lakewood's loss of Equalization Aid with the loss of Adjustment Aid, when they are separate phenomena.  

Based on recent legislation, Lakewood’s equalization aid will disappear next year or the year after and will not be offset by any State-aid advances.

The disappearance of Lakewood's Equalization Aid has nothing to do with S2.  S2 phases out Adjustment Aid aid which causes Lakewood to lose state aid, but the disappearance of Equalization Aid is because of growth in the Local Fair Share and stability in the Adequacy Budget, and those predate S2.  S2 causes Lakewood to lose state aid, but it does not cause Lakewood to lose Equalization Aid per se.  


The judge is correct here:

The tax levy is not determined just by the 6,000 attending the public schools, but by Lakewood Township’s population and ratables. There is a bigger pot of money in Lakewood Township. The tax levy generated $96.9 million this year based on property taxes.

In 2020-21, Lakewood's Tax Levy-LFS gap is $28.7 million.   If Lakewood received an exemption from the tax cap, it could considerably mitigate its budget problems, although even an additional $28.7 million would not be sufficient, hence, Lakewood merits additional state aid.

(Lakewood's Local Fair Share would be only a 1.1% if it had to pay it.  This is below NJ's 2021-22 average ($131 million out of $12 billion)).

Tax LevyLocal Fair ShareLevy, LFS Gap
2015-16$91,024,977$96,735,200$5,710,223
2016-17$94,823,327$92,974,112-$1,849,215
2017-18$98,699,341$102,034,106$3,334,765
2018-19$100,827,483$111,534,172$10,706,689
2019-20$102,844,033$123,904,450$21,060,417
2020-21$105,870,754$134,643,568$28,772,814
2021-22
----$131,866,083

(The cause of the fall in LFS is reductions in LFS multipliers.)

Conclusion:

I think the Administrative Law Judge is right to look at Lakewood's strong tax base and recommend a more comprehensive solution than simply ordering more state aid, but in not knowing that Lakewood was already ineligible for Equalization Aid and conflating the disappearance of Lakewood's Equalization Aid with the phase-out of Adjustment Aid, Judge Scalora reveals gaps in state aid knowledge that are not fitting to a major state aid decision maker.  

Lakewood, uniquely, can make a strong case that SFRA does not give it sufficient state aid although by not appealing for tax cap liberalization in addition to state aid it weakens its case for either.