Saturday, December 2, 2017

How Maryland Does It: How Another Deep-Blue State Has Much Lower Property Taxes than New Jersey






Every once in a while I meet an advocate for school district consolidation in New Jersey who uses Maryland as a beacon state for us to emulate, since Maryland's schools are just as high-performing as New Jersey's, less segregated, and significantly lower spending (and taxing).

Indeed.  All of that is true.

If you could magically transport your typical New Jersey house to Maryland, your property taxes would fall from $8,477 to only $3,437.  Your other taxes would be lower too: Maryland's sales tax is 6% compared to our 6.875%.  Maryland's corporate tax is 8%, instead of 9%, too.

For state and local taxes combined, Maryland takes in less than New Jersey.  Maryland's taxes equal 10.9% of income, whereas New Jersey's taxes equal 12.2% of income.  To put it in terms of dollars per capita, Maryland's state and local taxes are only $5,920 per person.  New Jersey's are $6,926.  (see Table 2; corroboration E-1 to E-4)

Paradoxically, you get more for your taxes in Maryland for some services.  If your kids went to a public college they'll have less debt than their peers in NJ, since Maryland's public higher education system gets 42% more money per capita than New Jersey's.  Maryland lets people take out 529 profits tax-free. If you lose your job, Maryland's property tax "circuit breaker" will reduce your property taxes. You'll have the satisfaction of knowing that your state's bond rating is AAA, so you might feel more confident investing in Maryland too.

So how are Maryland's taxes so much lower?

The most obvious difference between Maryland and New Jersey is that Maryland has only 24 countywide districts whereas New Jersey has 586 town-based districts, but Maryland's school district consolidation versus New Jersey's fragmentation is just the tip of the iceberg as to why Maryland has lower property taxes than the Garden State.

The direct savings of Maryland's district consolidation - ie, less redundancy in administration - are minimal.  It is in the indirect savings created by Maryland's consolidation - ie, less intense interdistrict spending competition - that produce the real savings.

This blog post will look at two under-discussed, and more significant, reasons why Maryland's property taxes are lower than New Jersey's:
1.  Maryland localities have their own income taxes.
2.  Maryland spends 22% less per student.
    a.  That lower spending is across-the-board.
        i.  There are several structural and political reasons for that lower spending.
 
A subsequent post will look at a third major reason:
3.  Maryland gives more state aid to middle-class districts than New Jersey does.

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The source of revenue doesn't make a district higher spending or lower spending, but technically speaking, one reason Maryland's property taxes are lower is because counties have a significant alternative source of revenue.

1.  Maryland Localities Have Their Own Income Taxes

Maryland's average property tax rate is only 1.05, compared to New Jersey's 2.40.  The Maryland jurisdiction with the highest property taxes, Baltimore City, only has a property tax rate of 2.248, which is below New Jersey's average.  The Maryland jurisdiction the lowest property tax rate is Talbot County, which has a rate of 0.547.

New Jersey's property tax average is 2.4.  Irvington, the New Jersey town with the highest all-in property taxes has a 4.9 rate, which is nearly five times Maryland's average. 

Maryland's 1.05 average property tax is a lower tax rate than even the richest towns in New Jersey have.  Millburn's tax rate is 1.8.  Princeton's is 2.0.  Madison's is 1.7.  Franklin Lakes's is 1.5.  Even Hoboken, with its $5.5 million in Adjustment Aid and proportionally small student population, still has a 1.3 tax rate.  The only NJ towns in NJ with property taxes lower than 1.05 are resort towns at the Jersey Shore and wealthy enclaves like Alpine and Harding.


Maryland's county income taxes range from 1.75% to 3.2%, with 3.0%
Source,  pg 28 
as the median.  Baltimore City, mentioned above for its high property tax, has a 3.2% income tax, so you would pay higher local taxes in Baltimore City than you would in most of New Jersey.

On average, Maryland localities get 34.8% of their taxes from income taxes, 53% from property taxes, and then 12% from "other taxes."  (ie, liquor stores)

Aside from Baltimore City, Maryland's property taxes are so much lower than New Jersey's that most New Jerseyans would come out ahead despite the local income tax.  A 3% median income tax is real money, but since Maryland's average property tax is $5,000 lower than New Jersey's, a family would have to make over $166,000 a year before it would pay higher Maryland local taxes than it would in New Jersey, assuming it lived in average-value houses.  Since families making over $166,000 in New Jersey probably live in more expensive-than-average houses anyway and pay higher than the $8,477 average in property taxes, the crossover income point would be higher than $166,000 per year, unless those

families had lived well below their means back in Jersey.
Above, a Montgomery County Liquor Store



Maryland's state income tax brackets are  higher for people at low-incomes, but lower at average to
above-average incomes.

Maryland taxes income $4,000-$100,000 at a 4.75% rate.  New Jersey has lower rates for low income filers, but NJ starts taxing at 5.525% at only $40,000 a year, then 6.37% at $75,000, and then at 8.97% $500,000.

Maryland's top bracket, 5.75%, kicks in at $250,000.  Because Maryland's second-highest and higher brackets are so much lower than NJ's, Maryland collects less in income taxes per capita than NJ ($1,297 p capita versus $1,361 per capita) and Maryland's system is less reliant on its top 1%.

In terms of all state taxes, Maryland captures less than New Jersey, $3,172 per capita versus New Jersey's $3,325 per capita. (see E-12)

How Maryland developed an income tax-based system whereas New Jersey developed a property tax-based system is complicated, but Maryland had a forty year head start on NJ in state income taxes, enacting its own income tax in 1937, whereas New Jersey held out until 1976.  Maryland also enacted a sales tax in 1947, whereas New Jersey didn't enact a sales tax until 1966.

2.  Maryland's Taxes are Lower Because School Spending is 22% Lower than New Jersey's

Maryland's property taxes are lower than New Jersey's because it has local income taxes, but another major factor is that Maryland's PreK-12 schools spend so 22% less per student than New Jersey's. New Jersey's spending is $21,243 per student, compared to Maryland's $16,985 per student, a difference of $4,258 per student.  (see Table F-1)

If New Jersey spent as much as Maryland on PreK-12 schools, we would save $5.9 billion.  At savings at that level, we would have no pension crisis, no NJTransit crisis, no underfunded higher ed, and have enough money left over to lower taxes.

Source, NEA Rankings & Estimates, Table F-1, 2016.
http://www.nea.org/assets/docs/2017_Rankings_and_Estimates_Report-FINAL-SECURED.pdf


Maryland's spending is also significantly lower in terms of spending as a percentage of State GDP.

Source, Figure 3.  "Median" refers to the national median.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxtYmwryVI00VDhjRGlDOUh3VE0/view

Maryland's lower school spending exists despite its cost of living being the same or higher than New Jersey's. 

There isn't a federal ranking of states by cost of living, but many independent organizations put out their own rankings. The respected MERIC ratings rank Maryland's cost of living as higher than New Jersey's. The Council for Community and Economic Research agrees and ranks Maryland higher in cost of living too.

Some sources rank New Jersey's cost of living higher, but the difference in cost of living is not proportional to the difference in school spending.  For instance, the Tax Foundation says that $90.66 in Maryland would only buy $87.34 worth of the same goods and services in New Jersey.  That's a difference, but not something that accounts for a 22% difference in school spending. Giving the closeness in the two states' cost of living, New Jersey's high education spending is due to political-judicial preference, not economic necessity.

Some would consider lower school spending a negative tradeoff, but Maryland's education performance is as high as New Jersey's, despite much lower spending.   Since Maryland's schools perform about as well as New Jersey's (topping Education Week's rankings six years in a row), I would not consider the lower spending a tradeoff except in that Maryland offers less public PreK.

(It's worth pointing out that more Maryland children attend private school than New Jersey children.  Only 85% of Maryland children attend public school, versus 89% of NJ children (see Figure 5)

2a.  Maryland's Spending is Lower than NJ's Across the Board

Many people attribute Maryland's lower spending to having fewer school districts, and thus less administration.
  • Maryland has 24 school districts for 874,514 students, or one district per 36,438 students.
  • New Jersey has 590 school districts for 1,347,166 students, or one district per 2,283 students.
That's a huge difference and yes, Maryland's administrative spending is lower, but Maryland's spending is lower almost everywhere.

Source: Table 7
https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2017/econ/g15-aspef.html

So Maryland's General Administration is $236 per student lower than New Jersey's.  Maryland's lower General Administrative spending would translate to savings of $328 million, which is a large amount, but only a fraction of the NJ/MD spending difference.

Attributing Maryland's lower taxes to district consolidation and administrative efficiency is correct, but highly incomplete.

The most financially significant difference between Maryland and New Jersey is that Maryland has fewer teachers.  NJ has 112,377 teachers, so a student:teacher ratio is 11.9:1, the second lowest in the US.

Maryland has 60,053 teachers, so a student:teacher ratio is 14.6:1, the 30th lowest in the US.

On top of Maryland having fewer teachers, it pays them less well, at an average salary of $66,456 versus New Jersey's $69,330.

I think the more significant relationship between having big districts is that those districts are socioeconomically diverse, and therefore there are no rich districts like in New Jersey to bid up salaries which middle-class districts end up struggling to match.  IE, Maryland does not have a "Millburn-Princeton Effect."

From an education point-of-view, Maryland's having fewer teachers and then giving those teachers lower salaries is a negative, but from a taxpayer point-of-view, having fewer teachers and lower salaries is a positive. 

i: there are many reasons for MD's lower spending

Why Maryland has lower school spending is a very complex matter, but I think the following are major reasons.

1.  Maryland's teacher unions are less powerful than New Jersey's.

Maryland only gave teacher unions the power to impose agency fees in 2013, and this law hasn't gone into effect statewide because there are counties where too few teachers want to actually join the union to trigger implementation.

New Jersey gave its teacher unions the power to impose agency fees wayyyyy back in 1979.

The newness of mandatory agency fees means that union fees in Maryland have not climbed as high as they have in New Jersey.  In 2014-15 the Maryland State Education Association had a budget of $21.6 million.  By contrast, the NJEA had a budget of $134.4 million.

It is perhaps due to the NJEA's superior power that New Jersey teachers have post-retirement healthcare coverage, which doesn't exist statewide in Maryland.  It is perhaps due to the NJEA's superior power that pensions in NJ are 100% a state obligation, versus a hybrid state-local obligation in Maryland.  It is perhaps due to the NJEA's superior power that NJ pours so much more into PreK-12 education aid than it does into higher education.

2.  Maryland has Far Fewer Students in Out-of-District Placement

New Jersey leads the nation in the percentage of special education students who are in out-of-district placement.  Maryland's placement rate is also above the national average, but barely half of New Jersey's.

According to the most recent data I could find, 0.9% of NJ students are in Out-of-District placement, the highest of all states, versus only 0.47% of Maryland students, which is itself the 6th highest of states.

I do not have data for Out-of-District placement total costs, but the spending difference must be in the hundreds of millions, both for tuition itself and transportation.

Maryland's having large districts may make feasible for districts to create specialized programs for kids that New Jersey's small districts cannot create, however, in Maryland the legal burden-of-proof is on the parents to prove that an in-district program is inadequate, whereas in New Jersey the legal burden-of-proof has been on the district to prove that a program is adequate.

In other words, in Maryland if there is a parent-district special education dispute, the special education program is assumed to be adequate, but in NJ if there is a dispute the special education program is assumed to be inadequate.  Thus, it is very hard for a New Jersey district to win a lawsuit against parents who want their child in a private-school setting.

When a New Jersey district loses special education litigation, the district pays the other side's legal fees, thereby incentivizing the district to accede to the parents' demands before litigation begins.

3.  Maryland does not have a "Princeton-Millburn Effect."

This is the large indirect benefit of having large, diverse districts.

Maryland has many rich towns, but it has no rich districts.  If Maryland's rich towns like Chevy Chase, Potomac, Bethesda, and Ocean City had independent school districts they would surely spend huge amounts of their own money on their own children, but all of those towns are subsumed into big, diverse countywide school districts and therefore they can't spend as much as what Princeton, Livingston, Franklin Lakes, Millburn etc can.

The highest-income school district in Maryland is Howard County, whose median income is $110,238.  That's pretty affluent, but but only 3.1x higher than Maryland's poorest school district, Somerset, whose median income is $35,154.  (see pg 96)

New Jersey has over 40 school districts with a higher median income than Howard County, and our ceiling is closer to $200,000 per year than $100,000.

By contrast, the richest K-12 school district in NJ (by income) is Millburn, whose income is $158,888, an amount that is 5.6x higher than Camden's $28,000.

The richest district in Maryland by tax base per student is Worchester County (on the Atlantic Ocean), but Worchester is only 4.1x richer than Maryland's poorest district by tax base, Caroline County.

Likewise, New Jersey's tax base differential is wider too.  Millburn's tax base per student is 18.6x higher than Camden's, but Millburn's tax base is nothing compared to microdistricts at the Jersey Shore.  Deal, which was cited in the Robinson v Cahill decision as an example of tax rate injustice, has a tax base per student that is 6.5x Millburn's and 121x than Camden's.

Even though Maryland and New Jersey are peers in income on a statewide basis, Maryland has no rich districts like New Jersey has.  One Maryland education expert I talked to said that Montgomery County had more salary competition against Washington, DC than it did against any other county in Maryland. 

In New Jersey, the existence of relatively small, affluent, high-spending districts like Princeton and Millburn has driven up overall education spending through what I will (semi-facetiously) call the "Princeton-Millburn Effect."

(Note: Millburn's spending has always been much lower than Princeton's, even though Millburn is wealthier.)

Residents of New Jersey's affluent districts have several reasons to accept higher taxes.
  1. First, high taxes in small towns give concentrated benefit to the children of that town, whereas in Maryland having big districts means that the benefits of high-spending are diffuse and that extra money may even go to high-poverty schools within that county.  
  2. Second, many people in high-income districts sincerely believe that high-spending = good schools and good schools= higher property values for that town, whereas in Maryland people would be less likely to believe this due to how large districts are and how diffuse any higher spending would be.
Since New Jersey has stronger interdistrict competition in teacher salaries and school services than NJ, affluent high-paying districts of New Jersey have bidded up salary scales statewide.

Indeed, even in the 1970s, New Jersey's property taxes were larger than all state revenue.  In 1990, before the Abbott II decision transformed NJ state aid, New Jersey's all-in property tax rate was 2.0, a figure I believe was the highest in the US.

The secondary Princeton-Millburn Effect is through compensatory state aid, since the existence of high-spending, affluent districts has forced the state to devote massive amounts of income tax revenue to state aid for the Abbott districts in order to equalize spending with affluent suburbs.  By 2006, 22 of the country's 30 highest spending districts in the United States were Abbotts and New Jersey had a U-shaped spending pattern, where poor, urban districts and affluent towns spent the most.  High-spending in the Abbotts added to other districts' upwards pressure on spending.

4.  In Maryland County Councils and Executives Set School Taxes, Not Boards of Education

Maryland school districts are "dependent districts," meaning they do not have their own taxing authority.

Maryland school districts get their money from the county governments they are part of.  The county council and executive determine how much money the school districts will have, not the Boards of Education.

County councils, I would think, would be more taxpayer-sensitive than Boards of Education are, who see their primary responsibility to do what is best for students, not taxpayers.


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Part 2: State Aid


Maryland has lower taxes on its middle-class residents because Maryland's middle-class districts get more state aid than their equivalents do in New Jersey.

State aid is a highly complex subject in which interstate comparisons are tricky.  New Jersey has more streams of indirect aid than Maryland does and New Jersey state aid is badly off-formula.  Part 2 of this series addresses state aid.






Sunday, November 12, 2017

NJ's Uneven Fall in Births Foretells Starker State Aid Inequalities, Economic Stagnation


Since the 1980s the number of births in New Jersey has been steadily falling year to year, but not steadily falling place to place.

According to state statistics, The number of births in NJ peaked in 1990, when 123,125 babies were born in the Garden State.  Despite the overall growth in our population,  in 2015, only 102,199 babies were born here, a 17% fall.

The slowdown in births since 1990 has only had momentary and tiny letups since 1990. The number of births falls more steeply during recessions than in times of growth, but it hasn't completely rebound after recessions either.



Update: 99,549 babies were born in NJ in 2019, so the decline has continued:
Update 2024: NJ's birthcount rebounded in 2021 and 2022 to ~103k, although fell again in 2023 by 2%.  
  

Without going too far into the causes, I think there are two major ones:
1.  The disproportionate departure from New Jersey of Millennials, who are the largest generation in
Millennials Are Abandoning NJ.
American history.
2.  A cultural trend toward having smaller families in general.

New Jersey's Total Fertility Rate has fallen from 2.09 in 2007 to only 1.8 today, which is the 15th lowest in the United States.  2024 Update: NJ's fertility rate is at the national average again, but it is 1.75, which is lower than it was in 2015.

Given that populations grow and shrink exponentially, the decline in the Total Fertility Rate will have accelerating demographic consequences for NJ.  If a society's TFR is 1.8 instead of 2.0, then in two generations it will have 19% fewer children, not 10% fewer.  (81% = 1.82/2.02)  Thus, the number of births in New
Jersey should decrease further as the steadily smaller cohorts of children born in the 1990s and 2000s enter their childbearing years.

So, unless there is a massive increase in immigration, the demographic challenge will not end.

(The difference in two generations between 2.09 and 1.8 is 25%.)

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As you would expect, the decline in births has been highly uneven.  Since 1990, Sussex County's births have fallen by 49%, from 2,274 in 1990 then to 1,154 per year today.  Warren has fallen by 45%, Hunterdon by 38%, and Monmouth by 30%.


199020002015Change Since 1990Change since 2000
Ocean62776542849435.3%29.8%
Hudson98288868103905.7%17.2%
Cumberland234820261958-16.6%-3.4%
Gloucester353831782805-20.7%-11.7%
Passaic841479366982-17.0%-12.0%
Middlesex10346105909313-10.0%-12.1%
Union7,6537,7276,782-11.4%-12.2%
Bergen10,50710,8979,413-10.4%-13.6%
Mercer507746724027-20.7%-13.8%
Atlantic4,0703,4212,936-27.9%-14.2%
Camden8,8697,0286,020-32.1%-14.3%
Essex144691215610294-28.9%-15.3%
Cape May1,3731,043881-35.8%-15.5%
Burlington5,9495,1864,353-26.8%-16.1%
Salem899811649-27.8%-20.0%
Somerset403144253297-18.2%-25.5%
Morris588264384717-19.8%-26.7%
Monmouth837980515849-30.2%-27.4%
Sussex227417781154-49.3%-35.1%
Hunterdon14871441916-38.4%-36.4%
Warren14491328792-45.3%-40.4%

The only two counties that have had growth in births are Ocean County and Hudson County, both of which are demographically and educationally unusual.

If Lakewood were excluded from the Ocean County count, Ocean County's number of births would have declined by 12% (there were 4,598 births to non-Lakewood Ocean County women in 2000 but only 4,030 in 2015)

If you know anything about Lakewood, you know that most of the children born to Lakewood-resident mothers will not go to public school.  The increase in the non-public student population will create strain on the Lakewood Public Schools for transportation and Out-of-District tuition, although the strain would not be as much as it would be if those students were enrolled in public schools.

Hudson County's family size is average, but it has a disproportionately large population of people of child-bearing age.  What I see as educationally unusual about Hudson County is that many of the parents there move out before their kids enter public school.

For instance, there have been over 1,000 babies born to women resident in Hoboken for the last five years, but the first grade cohort in Hoboken (charter and public), has about 350 kids.  Likewise for Jersey City - although not as extreme - there 4,300-4,400 babies are born per year, but the first grade cohort there has about 3,000 kids.

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Implications for Public Schools

Due to the fall in the number of births, New Jersey's student population actually peaked in 2005-06 at 1,393,782.  It has fallen now to 1,373,267.

That decline is only 1.6% and may not sound like a lot, but it occurred despite a lower drop-out rate, closings of Catholic schools, and some PreK expansion.  (source, NJ Enrollment Files)

The chart below shows the percentage change in births from 2000 to 2015.


There are many implications of the decline of births for New Jersey's public education system, state aid distribution, and the economy.

1.  The State Aid Distribution Will Become Even More Uneven

As the populations of rural districts fall, their formula aid will decline even more and be replaced by Adjustment Aid.  This enrollment decline will continue to push up the state's total of excess aid, even as the deficit grows for underaided districts.

SFRA, as it was written in 2008, does allow a district to lose state aid if its post-2008 enrollment loss exceeds 5%.  It is likely that more districts will encounter the enrollment loss threshold that allows some aid loss under SFRA's status quo.

Since the state has severe budgetary problems, the huge excess aid totals of permanently shrinking districts will be harder to justify when scores of other districts are severely underaided.

The distribution of PreK aid will also need to be redistribution.

Some districts will need more PreK money, like Hoboken and Jersey City.

 In 2015 there were 1,124 babies born to Hoboken mothers, up from 729 in 2005.  In 2015  there were 4,495 babies born to Jersey City mothers, up from 3,733 in 2005.)

On the other hand, other Abbotts have had a decline in births.  In 2015 Union City mothers only had 954 babies, compared to 1,119 in 2005.  In 2015 Pleasantville moms only had 303 babies, compared to 363 in 2005.

2.  Shrinking Areas Will Continue to Shrink

Consolidating New Jersey's rural counties into superdistricts won't just be a "could do" or "should do," but a "must do."  Cape May, Salem, Hunterdon, Warren already have fewer than 1,000 babies born per year, and Sussex is just 1,154 per year.

These five counties are New Jersey's smallest.
  • Sussex's total enrollment is 20,512.00
  • Salem's total enrollment is 10,906.50.
  • Hunterdon's total enrollment is 19,474.50.
  • Cape May's total enrollment is 12,583.00.
  • Warren's total enrollment is 16,443.50.
    And there's more contraction ahead for all of them.

    As districts shrink, many will find it difficult to sustain the classes and extracurriculars that most parents think their kids should have.

    As shrinking districts shrink further, their per student costs will become even higher.  If these districts actually lose Adjustment Aid, their taxpayers may not be able to make up the difference, since a district's fall in costs is not proportional to the fall in enrollment.

    (see "Sussex County Consolidation.")

    3.  The State's Economy will Face a Demographic Headwind

    Population growth isn't, by itself, a good thing, but it is something that an economy usually needs to grow and is, itself, a sign of economic growth.

    New Jersey already has the country's worst net outmigration rate and has 80,000 more people leave the state than it has new arrivals from other states.

    As New Jersey has smaller cohorts enter the labor force (and so many young New Jerseyans leave
    Source, http://bit.ly/2ib9Zmb.  NCES.
    anyway) employers may struggle to find enough workers.  Many employers who contemplate a New Jersey expansion or investment will decide against it, given concerns about the labor supply.

    The shrinking population will also harm the economy on the consumer-side, since there will be less aggregate demand, ie, less spending, less household formation etc.  Less aggregate demand equals less sales tax, less corporate tax etc for the Treasury.

    New Jersey's unemployment rate should stay low, which is a plus.  Housing prices will be lower than they would otherwise be, which is another plus.  Perhaps an equilibrium will be established by our net outmigration decreasing.

    But the state economy will grow very slowly and New Jersey will struggle mightily against its debts until there is a federal rescue or another round of pension cuts.

    37% of New Jersey college students already go to college out-of-state.  When the students look back home towards New Jersey in its death throes, it'll be hard to think of a reason to come back.

    After more NJ-born college students don't come back, the demographic headwind will become a hurricane.

    ----------

    State Aid Deficits and Surpluses are Dynamic


    The fact that NJ's population continues to grow in some places and shrink in others underscores how dynamic the state aid distribution is.  

    Given the continued decline of births in NJ - and outright collapse in some places - the districts in NJ that have lost enrollment over the last few years have not seen the end of it.

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    See Also:
    ----

    2020 Update.  NJ's birthcount has continued to fall.


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    Update for 2022:





    Sunday, October 29, 2017

    Atlantic City Should be an Abbott

    In 1990, when the Abbott list crystalized, Atlantic City met the Supreme Court's two criteria for Abbottization, ie, status in DFG A or B and classification by the Department of Community Affairs as an "urban municipality."

    Though Atlantic City was demographically poorer and more "urban" than
    many districts who were Abbottized, Atlantic City was excluded from the Abbott list by Chief Justice Robert Wilentz himself due to its extremely strong casino-based tax base.

    Exclusion from the Abbott list was something that Atlantic City could manage given how enormous its tax base was until the 2010s.

    Throughout the 1990s and again in 2008 when its Equalized Valuation peaked at $22.2 billion, Atlantic City had the largest Equalized Valuation in New Jersey.   At its peak in 2008, Atlantic City's school tax rate was only 0.44 and yet it was able to sustain $17,600 per student in spending, a much higher amount than the South Jersey Abbotts like Vineland, Bridgeton, Millville, and Pleasantville.

    Atlantic City remained a high-tax base district until the 2010s.

    Then, unfortunately, other Mid-Atlantic states got the idea to open casinos, Atlantic City tourist numbers dropped, and Atlantic City's tax base started to implode.

    In 2013 alone, the Borgata challenged its $2.3 billion assessment and got it down to $870 million.  Then, in 2015, the Borgota appealed again and got another lower assessment.

    Then other casinos started to close altogether like the Sands, the Revel, Showboat, the Trump Plaza, and the Atlantic Club.  Atlantic City mayor Don Guardian predicted Atlantic City's valuation would stabilize around $7 billion.

    As Atlantic City's casinos closed and the tax base collapsed, Atlantic City did not cut its tax levy proportionally and the tax rate soared and fell more heavily on residential homeowners.   By 2014-15 the school tax rate had risen from 0.44 to 1.1691. 

    In 2015 Senate President Steve Sweeney said that Atlantic City should become an Abbott.
    After hearing complaints from residents facing a huge hike in their property taxes, state Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D-Gloucester) today said that the state should consider sending more aid to Atlantic City schools. 
    Sweeney, on a South Jersey radio call-in show, suggested making Atlantic City an “Abbott district,” which is named for a series of court cases in which the state Supreme Court said residents of New Jersey's poorest cities have a right to well-funded schools. 
    “One of the other things that has to be looked at now is, with all these tax decisions does Atlantic City now qualify or deserve to be an Abbott district?” Sweeney said on the show, Pinky’s Corner. “When the casino revenues were high, no they didn’t qualify. But now the numbers have to look at, the picture has to be reevaluated. That would help the tax base in Atlantic City.”
    In 2015 Atlantic City still had an above-average tax base (its Equalized Valuation was $11.3 billion, the seventh largest in NJ), so I disagreed with Sweeney at the time, but by now Atlantic City has fallen farther than even pessimists predicted and Abbott status is merited.

    In 2014-15 Atlantic City's school tax rate had been 1.1691, but by 2017-18 it was 1.1911.  For 2018-19, if new state aid does not arrive and the tax levy stays constant at $82 million, the tax rate would be 1.86!  (1.86 = $82 million / $4.4 billion)

    Demographics

    The first reason Abbott status is warranted is that Atlantic City's demographics are among the most challenging in New Jersey.

    Atlantic City's FRL-eligibility rate is in the bottom ten for New Jersey.

    1.  Camden City, 95%
    2.  Union City, 95%
    3.  Seaside Heights, 94%
    4.  Woodlynne, 93%
    5.  Asbury Park, 93%
    6.  Bridgeton,  93%
    7.  Passaic, 91%
    8.  Paterson, 90%
    9.  Trenton, 89%
    10.  Atlantic City, 89%

    Tax Base

    Atlantic City's tax base is well below the state's average, although it is not at the same ranking as its FRL-eligibility.

    For 2017-18 Atlantic City's tax base is $8300 per student compared to the state median of $13,300 per student.   (AC = ($55.86 million in Local Fair Share for 6700 students).

    That $8300 per student is low, but is only in the state's bottom quarter.

    However, the 2017-18 Local Fair Share is based on Atlantic City's $6.4 billion in Equalized Valuation for tax year 2017.

    Since then, the tax year 2018 Equalized Valuations have come out and Atlantic City's Equalized Valuation fell from $6.4 billion to $4.4 billion.  That $2 billion drop in Equalized Valuation should diminish Atlantic City's Local Fair Share by at least $14 million, or a 25% fall.

    Since the 2017-18 Local Fair Shares are already out of date, I will calculate Equalized Valuation per student for the Abbotts.

    This is the Equalized Valuation per student of all the Abbotts, plus Atlantic City.  Although Atlantic City's Equalized Valuation per student is still above the Abbott average, there are several Abbotts whose tax bases are superior and yet do not even have equivalent student poverty.

    DistrictEqualized Valuation Per Student (based on tax year 2018 EV)
    HOBOKEN$6,194,298
    NEPTUNE TWP$1,111,837
    LONG BRANCH CITY$950,114
    JERSEY CITY$924,101
    ASBURY PARK$703,676
    ATLANTIC CITY$653,744
    HARRISON$596,929
    GARFIELD$559,809
    BURLINGTON CITY$465,910
    VINELAND$407,270
    KEANSBURG$371,185
    WEST NEW YORK$358,421
    NEW BRUNSWICK$346,825
    PEMBERTON$345,188
    MILLVILLE$329,073
    NEWARK$312,648
    EAST ORANGE$309,757
    UNION CITY$308,499
    PERTH AMBOY CITY$301,569
    CITY OF ORANGE TWP$298,012
    ELIZABETH$289,422
    PHILLIPSBURG$279,214
    PLAINFIELD$277,555
    GLOUCESTER CITY$272,747
    IRVINGTON$262,452
    PASSAIC$248,136
    PATERSON$231,049
    PLEASANTVILLE$205,939
    TRENTON$165,947
    SALEM CITY$135,244
    CAMDEN$114,639
    BRIDGETON$85,150

    Implications of Abbottization?

    It's hard to say what becoming an Abbott would mean for Atlantic City.  

    SFRA created a unitary funding formula for K-12 aid, but preserved the Abbotts' rights to100% state funding for construction and 100% funding for PreK for all 3s and 4s in the Abbotts.

    Due to SFRA's unitary formula for K-12 aid, Atlantic City's problem for K-12 aid isn't that it lacks Abbott status, it is that it is severely underaided anyway.  For 2017-18 SFRA already says that Atlantic City should get $79.3 million, but the state only gives it $56 million (which is $24 million in regular DOE money and another $32 million in "Commercial Valuation Stabilization Aid" which comes from other state agencies.)

    Atlantic City already gets $3.3 million in PreK aid, which I can infer is much less than it would get if it were an Abbott.   

    I do not know the size of Atlantic City's age 3 and age 4 cohort, but based on proportionality with the Abbotts, Atlantic City is not getting nearly enough PreK money for every child there.

    For instance, Pleasantville, which has 3,000 fewer students than Atlantic City, gets $6.9 million in PreK money.  Millville, which has 1800 fewer students than Atlantic City, gets $8.5 million in PreK money.  Long Branch, which has 1600 fewer students than Atlantic City gets $9.8 million.  (source, DOE State Aid Summaries)

    Keansburg has only 1400 students total and it gets $2.8 million for PreK.


    Although Abbottizing Atlantic City doesn't seem to be on the table anymore, I hope it does come up because a conversation around Abbottizing Atlantic City might also inspire conversation about other updates to the Abbott list, including the deAbbottization of definitely Hoboken and perhaps Jersey City, Long Branch and Pemberton.